The New York Times gave Trump a 15% chance of winning the night before the 2016 election.
The man who called that race correctly just made a guarantee on The Ingraham Angle that nobody in the polling industry wants you to hear.
He put his name on a specific number – and it changes everything about November.
Matt Towery Says Trump Approval Rating Polls Are Wrong and He Has the Track Record to Prove It
Matt Towery runs InsiderAdvantage.
RealClearPolitics has ranked the firm among the top pollsters in the nation across multiple presidential cycles.
He called 2016 for Trump when every mainstream outlet was already writing Clinton's transition coverage.
He called 2024.
He sat down with Laura Ingraham and said this:
"The polling that you're seeing come in on Trump is incorrect."
Not skewed or biased.
Just flat wrong
He didn't stop there.
Towery told Ingraham that Trump has a floor of 41 to 42 percent on his absolute worst day – and he guaranteed it on live television.
"The pollsters are wrong. And I'm right. I guarantee I'm right about that."
He also told Ingraham that Trump's Republican support isn't slipping – it's at its highest point ever.
"His polling numbers among Republicans are the best they have ever been. They're at the height."
So why are you seeing 35% in polls?
The Polling Industry Has Missed Trump's Real Numbers Three Times and the 2026 Midterms Are Next
The night before the 2016 election, the New York Times gave Trump a 15% chance of winning.
He won 306 electoral votes.
In 2020, the American Association of Public Opinion Research called the polling error the profession's biggest misfire since 1980 – the year they told America it would be a close race and Ronald Reagan won 44 states.
The industry admitted the problem.
They rewrote their formulas, updated their sampling, and promised it would never happen again.
Then in 2024 they missed again and Trump won handily.
Towery explained the core failure to Ingraham in plain terms – most pollsters don't weigh for Trump's actual voter universe.
They don't use his last election results to calibrate who actually shows up for him.
They plug in census data and standard turnout assumptions, and Trump's voters slip right through – the ones who don't answer calls from unknown numbers, the ones who hadn't voted in decades before 2016 and haven't missed an election since.
Craig Patrick, Fox 13's political editor, reported after interviewing Towery that landline-based polling has become increasingly unreliable as call-screening has grown, leaving survey respondents less and less representative of the actual electorate.
Towery told Sean Hannity last year there is a "blackout on accurate pollsters."
InsiderAdvantage, Trafalgar, Rasmussen – the firms that top the accuracy rankings – never appear on mainstream news programs.
The ones with documented misses keep getting cited.
The ones who got it right keep getting frozen out.
Why the Shy Trump Voter Effect Has Mainstream Pollsters Getting 2026 Wrong Again
Trump called it out himself, boasting about a CNN poll he claimed showed 100% Republican approval.
CNN's Jake Tapper knocked it down fast – the actual CNN number has Trump at 80% among Republicans, down from 90% in March 2025, with strong support falling from 64% to 43% in that same stretch.
That slide is real and worth watching.
But it's still 80%.
And Towery's point cuts deeper than the Republican numbers.
Presidential approval among the base is the single strongest predictor of midterm turnout for the president's party.
When Republican voters think their man is winning, they show up.
When the media spends six months convincing them he's at 35% and finished, some of them stay home.
That's what coordinated bad polling does – it's turnout suppression dressed up as journalism, and they ran this same play before 2016.
Towery isn't saying the polls are off by a point or two.
He's saying the floor is 41 to 42 – not 35 – and he's guaranteeing it.
If he's right, Democrats are walking into November with a completely wrong picture of where this Midterm actually stands.
The man who called it right went on Laura Ingraham's show and told you exactly what he thinks.
Sources:
- Willa Pope Robbins, "MAGA Pollster Says Everyone Has Trump's Approval Ratings Wrong – Except Him: 'I'm Right,'" Mediaite, May 6, 2026.
- Matt Towery, "InsiderAdvantage's Matt Towery: 'There's A Blackout On Accurate Pollsters,'" RealClearPolitics, May 4, 2025.
- Matt Towery, "InsiderAdvantage National Survey: Trump Bounces Back to 50% Approval," InsiderAdvantage, February 3, 2026.
- Daniel Dale, "Fact check: No, Trump doesn't have a 100% approval rating among Republicans," CNN Politics, May 6, 2026.
- Craig Patrick, "Why you can't always trust the political polls – and what to watch in 2026," Fox 13, January 3, 2026.