Jeanne Shaheen held that New Hampshire Senate seat for seventeen years.
Now Republicans have a real shot at taking it back – and it's the Democrats themselves saying so.
What the Democrat running for that seat just admitted publicly has his own party in full panic mode.
Chris Pappas Admits the New Hampshire Senate Race Is Slipping
Chris Pappas saw the floor drop out from under him.
The four-term New Hampshire congressman is the Democrats' consensus candidate to replace retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen – and he is already begging the national party for help.
Pappas sent a fundraising email last Friday with two words that say everything: "We're losing."
He went further in a public interview, warning that Democrats cannot afford "one step backward in any seat that's currently held by a Democrat" if they want to flip the Senate majority.
That's the kind of language you use when internal numbers look worse than what you're releasing to the press.
The University of New Hampshire Survey Center confirmed it in an Aug. 26 poll showing Republican John Sununu leading Pappas 45% to 43%.
A GOP pollster surveying 600 likely voters between Aug. 27 and Aug. 30 put Sununu at 37% to Pappas's 36% – with a massive 23% still undecided and in play for Republicans.
Two polls with leads for Sununu. Democrats panicking in public.
Why John Sununu Leads in Every New Hampshire Senate Poll
John Sununu is not some recycled RINO the GOP dug out of a filing cabinet.
He held this exact Senate seat from 2003 to 2009 – and he won it the first time by beating Jeanne Shaheen herself.
He knows the state. The state knows him.
His father, John H. Sununu, served as governor. His brother Chris Sununu served four terms as governor and remains one of the most popular politicians in New Hampshire.
That family name matters in a small state where retail politics still work – and it terrifies Democrats who know the difference between facing an unknown challenger and facing a Sununu.
New Hampshire voters proved in 2024 they have no problem splitting their ticket. Kelly Ayotte won the governor's race the same night Kamala Harris narrowly carried the state for president – a reminder that the right Republican can win there even in a Democrat-leaning year.
President Trump gave Sununu his "complete and total endorsement" in February, calling him an "America First Patriot" who "will work tirelessly to advance our America First Agenda."
The Senate Leadership Fund – the main Republican Senate super PAC – pledged $17 million to back Sununu in the general election.
Senate Democrats? They reserved $10.2 million for New Hampshire – less than what they committed to Alaska.
Democrats are dumping $55 million into Ohio and $30 million into deep-red Iowa while the seat Jeanne Shaheen leaves behind goes underfunded and slides toward Republicans.
National Democrats Bet $55 Million on Iowa While the New Hampshire Senate Seat Slips Away
Kathy Sullivan, the former chair of the New Hampshire Democrat Party, has been watching national party leaders pour money into red-state long shots while the Granite State gets nothing.
"I get these ads, emails, pitching donations," she said. "They always put up these other states and never New Hampshire."
Her second warning landed harder: "You've got to protect all the states that are close. I just don't see that happening here the way it should be."
Democrats are betting they can flip Ohio, Iowa, and Texas – states Trump carried in 2024 – while leaving a seat Kamala Harris won by fewer than three points weakly defended.
Sununu won Tuesday's primary over Scott Brown by a wide margin – and he built that lead while distancing himself from Trump on trade with Canada, showing he can hold the base while pulling in the independents who decide New Hampshire Senate races.
Democrats need every seat on their map to hold – and Sununu just peeled one loose.
John Sununu and the 2026 Senate Majority
Democrats drew up their 2026 Senate strategy assuming New Hampshire was banked and the action was elsewhere.
Democrats need a net gain of four Senate seats to retake the majority. They cannot afford to concede ground before the general election even starts.
The moment Pappas publicly announced "we're losing," he handed Republicans proof that even the Democrats' base map is crumbling.
John Sununu has Trump's endorsement, outside money, the most famous last name in New Hampshire politics, and experience winning this exact seat before.
Chris Pappas has a fundraising email begging for help.
Democrats built their 2026 strategy on an expanding map. Sununu just drew the map right back.
Sources:
- Staff, "Poll: John Sununu Leads Chris Pappas in New Hampshire Senate Race," Breitbart, September 3, 2026.
- Staff, "Support for Pappas Dwindles in U.S. Senate Race as GOP, Progressive Challengers Climb in the Polls," Concord Monitor, August 31, 2026.
- Staff, "Trump Endorses John Sununu for U.S. Senate," Fox News, February 2, 2026.
- Staff, "Senate Republicans Rally Behind John Sununu to Flip New Hampshire Seat," NRSC, October 27, 2025.