Beto O'Rourke nearly flipped Texas — and nearly erased the Republican Senate majority with it.
Now a left-wing Austin lawmaker is $30 million deep into the exact same playbook.
And Ken Paxton just revealed how high the stakes are in this year’s Texas Senate race.
Paxton vs Talarico Texas Senate Race Could Decide Republican Senate Majority
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton went on Breitbart News Saturday and told host Bradley Jaye exactly what losing his Senate race to left-wing state Rep. James Talarico would cost the Republican Party.
"If we lose Texas, the Senate's gone," Paxton said.
That's not a talking point. That's arithmetic.
Talarico — a former sixth-grade teacher who once made his students write "Obama memoirs" celebrating election night from the point of view of an Obama family member — has raked in $30 million, most of it from California and New York.
His campaign began spending roughly $3 million a week on television advertising in July while Paxton was still climbing out of a bruising three-month primary runoff that left him starting June 1 with essentially zero dollars in the bank after he defeated RINO Senator John Cornyn.
Paxton put the fundraising gap in numbers: "I started June 1 with basically $0."
James Talarico Texas Senate Record Shows Radical Left Positions
Democrats are selling James Talarico as a mainstream Texas moderate. The voting record says otherwise.
Talarico voted against House Bill 20 — legislation that restricted cashless personal bonds for defendants accused of violent or sexual crimes. He voted against Senate Bill 6, a major bail reform package. The Paxton campaign calls it "the most consistently anti-law enforcement record in the Texas Legislature."
In a resurfaced 2021 interview with a "TransQueer" activist, Talarico described himself as "a Christian who hates Christianity." That same year he called God "non-binary" and suggested Jesus Christ was a "radical feminist." His former campaign website included language promoting radical positions that has since been quietly scrubbed.
On the southern border, Talarico went on record saying it should be treated "like our front porch" – with a "welcome mat out front."
An Emerson College/Nexstar survey released this week found Paxton at 47 percent, Talarico at 46 percent — a race that a blown primary war chest could easily decide.
Ted Cruz survived Beto O'Rourke by less than two points in 2018. Democrats are back with a better-funded candidate and three decades of ambition.
SAVE America Act Blocked Again as 2026 Midterms Close In
Paxton had a second target during his Breitbart interview – and it wasn't James Talarico.
He has been a leading voice for the SAVE America Act, Trump's election integrity legislation that would require documentary proof of citizenship to register to vote in federal elections. The House passed it. Republicans hold the Senate. The bill is still stuck.
Four Republican senators – Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, Mitch McConnell, and Thom Tillis – have twice joined Democrats to block the measure. Paxton acknowledged there are "a few Republican senators" who won't vote for it and said he'd genuinely like to understand their reasoning.
"I'd love to talk to them," Paxton said. "Why are they not interested in protecting national elections?"
"All this other stuff that we're for isn't going to matter if we can't protect our election and have the opportunity to have a majority."
A poll cited by House Republicans found 71 percent of Americans support the legislation. Collins, Murkowski, McConnell, and Tillis are blocking what nearly three in four Americans say they want.
Paxton's question isn't rhetorical. It's an indictment.
Talarico is funded by California and New York because coastal left-wing money understands exactly what Paxton told Breitbart: lose Texas and the Senate majority goes with it.
Eighteen House Republicans from Texas have endorsed Paxton. Senate leadership has signaled financial support is coming.
But winning the race means closing a $30 million gap against a candidate who calls the southern border a "front porch" while voting against locking up violent criminals – and doing it before November 3.
"We don't have these opportunities forever," Paxton said. "We shouldn't waste a single day."
Sources:
- Bradley Jaye, "Exclusive — Ken Paxton: 'If We Lose Texas, the Senate's Gone,'" Breitbart News, August 15, 2026.
- Nick Givas, "James Talarico Tried Fooling Texas Voters, And It's Blowing Up in His Face," The Western Journal, August 12, 2026.
- Emily Medeiros, "Talarico's Votes on Bail Reform and Crime Penalties Examined," The Daily Signal, August 14, 2026.
- Fox News Staff, "Four Senate Republicans Again Unite with Dems to Block Trump's SAVE America Act," Fox News, June 4, 2026.
- Fox News Staff, "Texas Senate Hopeful James Talarico's Progressive Views in Spotlight," Fox News.