Election night 2024 was the worst night Democrats had experienced in a generation.
They spent the next six months promising 2026 would be their revenge.
Now CNN's numbers man just went on live television and said something that should make every Democrat in America very nervous.
The Poll Numbers That Prove There Is No Blue Wave Coming
Here is the comparison that has Democrats worried sick about November.
In 2006 – when George W. Bush was sinking in the polls over Iraq – Democrats led Republicans on net favorability by 18 points heading into midterms.
In 2018 – during Trump's first term – Democrats led on net favorability by 12 points at this same stage.
Today?
Republicans are ahead by 5.
On CNN News Central, data guru Harry Enten walked through the generic congressional ballot numbers: Democrats held a six-point lead in March 2025.
That lead is now three points.
"You would have thought that the Democrats' lead would expand on the generic congressional ballot," Enten said.
"It didn't happen."
With redistricting factored in, Democrats need three to four points just to break even on House seats.
They are not winning.
They are clinging to the floor.
"It is within the margin of error," Enten said.
"Republicans very much remain in the game."
Democrat Favorability Just Hit a 35-Year Low and CNN Has the Numbers
76% of Americans blame Trump for higher living costs.
Democrats looked at that number and started celebrating.
Then Enten showed them the economy trust numbers.
Which party do voters trust more to handle the economy?
Tie.
A dead heat – after everything.
The Iran war sent gas prices spiking. Every network spent months covering Trump's approval collapse. Every Democrat in America ran on kitchen-table affordability.
Still a tie.
"Just because Donald Trump is unpopular doesn't make Democrats popular," Enten said.
"And when you match Democrats against Republicans, all of a sudden it is a dead heat."
Back in April, Enten put a finer point on it.
"Both parties are wildly unfavorable right now," CNN anchor John Berman said.
"Correct," Enten replied. "Democrats are even more unpopular."
Democrats Are Losing the Generic Ballot Race They Were Supposed to Win
This is not an accident.
Democrats lost working-class voters in 2016.
They barely held on in 2020.
They lost those voters badly enough in 2024 to hand Trump a second term and Republican Senate majorities.
And the brand numbers confirm they are losing them again.
Only 28 percent of Americans view the Democrat Party favorably heading into this cycle – a historic low.
The Wall Street Journal called it the lowest rating from voters in 35 years.
In 2006, Democrats entered midterms with an 18-point net favorability edge over Republicans – opposition party, unpopular war, unified message.
In 2018 the edge was 12 points, base energy was through the roof, and the generic ballot pointed toward a wave.
Today Democrats are running what Enten called "historically low" numbers for a party opposing a Republican president.
A December 2025 Quinnipiac poll found only 42 percent of Democrat voters approved of their party's performance in Congress.
Seventy-seven percent of Republicans approved of theirs.
That enthusiasm gap is the ballgame.
CNN Said It Twice and Democrats Still Have No Answer
The most important thing about Enten's warning is not just what he said.
It's that he's now said it twice – April 6 and May 13 – and each time the numbers have gotten worse.
Democrats cannot dismiss this as Republican spin.
This is CNN's chief data analyst, their own network's polling, their own anchor nodding along.
In 2006, Democrats walked into midterms as the obvious choice – an unpopular Republican president, a favorability lead of nearly 20 points, and a unified message against an unpopular war.
Today they have an unpopular Republican president and nothing else.
No message voters trust. No brand voters like. And the generic ballot lead they're counting on may not survive contact with redistricting math.
"Democrats are, just simply put, running behind their previous benchmarks," Enten said in April.
Six weeks later, even CNN can't pretend the wave is coming.
Sources:
- Ariel Zilber, "CNN's Harry Enten gives Democrats 'big-time reality check' ahead of midterm elections," New York Post, May 13, 2026.
- "Harry Enten Serves 'Big Time Reality Check for Democrats,'" Mediaite, May 13, 2026.
- "CNN Data Guru Hits Dems With Shock Poll Reality in Midterm Elections," The Daily Beast, April 6, 2026.
- "Harry Enten Reveals Why Dems Might Blow Midterm Opportunity," Mediaite, April 6, 2026.
- Paul Steinhauser, "Midterm Alarm Bells: Democrats Face Steep Favorability Deficit," Fox News, April 7, 2026.
- "Democrats Face Historic Favorability Crisis Amid Shifting Voter Sentiment," The Fulcrum, August 2025.