The Presidential election is getting the lion’s share of the attention.
But the Senate will determine what happens in Washington, D.C. next year.
And Chuck Schumer sat in stunned silence after Donald Trump handed him this bad news.
Donald Trump could carry Rust Belt Senate candidates to victory
Democrats may be on the verge of losing Senate Majority Chuck Schumer’s (D-NY) 51-49 Senate majority after the election.
Both parties admit that West Virginia’s Senate seat is flipping Republican after Senator Joe Manchin (I-WV) decided to retire.
Senator Jon Tester (D-MT) hasn’t led in a public poll in months, and the highly-respected election forecasters at the Cook Political Report shifted Montana’s Senate race to “lean Republican.”
Those two pick-ups alone would give Republicans a 51-seat majority in the Senate.
But more gains could be on the way in the Rust Belt.
Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH) is in a tough race in Ohio – a state in which former President Donald Trump is expected to cruise to victory.
The Rust Belt swing states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania all have Senate races in which Democrats are playing defense as well.
Vice President Kamala Harris is showing signs of weakness with working class voters that dominate those states.
Senator Tammy Baldwin’s (D-WI) internal polling reportedly had Kamala down three points in Wisconsin.
Trump winning the Rust Belt swing states could also help carry the Republican Senate candidates in those states across the finish line.
Only one Senate race in the 2016 and 2020 Elections has been won by a Senate candidate of the opposite party of the Presidential candidate who won the state.
Alarm bells ringing about the Wisconsin Senate race for Democrats
The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) found that Baldwin was trailing her Republican challenger Eric Hovde in Wisconsin in an internal poll.
“After trending positively and gaining 2 points in each of our latest polls, Hovde has been able to surpass Baldwin on a head-to-head ballot,” NRSC executive director Jason Thielman wrote in an internal memo.
Republican pollster Jim McLaughlin pointed to the success of former Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker and Senator Ron Johnson (R-WI) as a sign that conservatives can win in the state.
“I’ve been polling in Wisconsin for a long time,” McLaughlin said. “Everybody says it’s a Democratic state, but Ron Johnson’s gotten elected three times. And how many times did Scott Walker win there? It really is the ultimate swing state.”
“Because of its working middle-class background and who these voters are, it’s prime Trump territory,” he added.
Wisconsin Republican strategist Brandon Scholz said Hovde gained momentum after having faced attacks from Baldwin for owning a home in Laguna Beach, California.
“He sees some Republicans coming home who might not have been certain. I think his message has changed because he got out of that cycle of having to defend not being from Wisconsin,” Scholz said. “Baldwin put a pretty good spank on him.”
“He’s been able to get into more of the attack mode on Baldwin, and Baldwin has seemed to have flattened out a little bit,” he added.
A good showing for Donald Trump in the Rust Belt could be followed by Republican gains in the Senate.
